Slide 24: IPCC future scenarios
In order to predict future climate responses, the IPCC has modelled and detailed several different scenarios (IPCC, 1992; IPCC, 2000).
The SRES scenarios fall into four main "storyline" categories.
A1 - rapid economic growth and introduction of efficient technologies.
Global population peaks mid-century, then decreases.
Global capacity building; difference in per capita income between regions decreases.
Three separate sub scenarios depending on energy policy:
A1FI - fossil fuel intensive.
A1T - fossil fuel use phased out entirely.
A1B - balanced use of all sources ( no one dominates).
IPCC, 2000: Summary for Policymakers. Emissions Scenarios - A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III Published for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC, 1992: Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scientific Assessment [Houghton, J.T., B.A. Callander and S.K. Varney (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 100 pp.