Slide 23: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
The method of time slice modelling was applied to the problem of conservation planning, as shown in a paper by Williams et al which is still currently in press. Time slice modelling is a method of identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through changing habitats as they become suitable. It seeks to minimise firstly the dispersal demands on a species (such as expecting it to cross large areas of transformed land), as well as minimising the amount of land required for preparing these corridors. The ultimate goal is to represent each species wherever possible in at least 35 grid cells (each of which is approximately 100 square kilometres), at all times between 2000 and 2050, despite the shifting of the climate.
This is done by identifying the dispersal chain backwards from feasible areas of survival in 2050 to current distributions. A heuristic algorithm in the WORLDMAP package was used, and it selected only viable habitats within a specified distance of the population. This is all explained graphically in the following slide.