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Table of Contents

  1. Introduction: AIACC: Climate Change and Conservation Planning
    1. Chapter1: Evidence for climate change
      1. Chapter 2: Global circulation models
        1. Chapter 4: Biodiversity responses to past changes in climate
          1. Chapter 5: Adaptation of biodiversity to climate change
            1. Chapter 6: Approaches to niche-based modelling
              1. Chapter 7: Ecosystem function modelling
                1. Chapter 8: Climate change implications for conservation planning
                  1. Slide 1: Climate change implications
                  2. Slide 2:Conservation planning
                  3. Slide 3:The process of conservation planning
                  4. Slide 4: Conservation planning
                  5. Slide 5 : Climate change
                  6. Slide 6: Climate change affects future species distributions
                  7. Slide 7: Future conservation planning
                  8. Slide 8: Needs
                  9. Slide 9: Currently
                  10. Slide 10: Framework for climate change-integrated conservation strategies (CCS)
                  11. Slide 11: TIER 1 CCS 1 - Areas of stability/resilience
                  12. Slide 12: Projected future change in biomes
                  13. Slide 13: CCS 1 - Areas of stability/resilience
                  14. Slide 14: TIER 2 CCS 2 - Areas of current & future conservation value
                  15. Slide 15: Conservation value
                  16. Slide 16: Conservation value
                  17. Slide 17: CCS 2 - Areas of conservation value
                  18. Slide 18: CCS 3 - Species dispersal
                  19. Slide 19: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
                  20. Slide 20: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
                  21. Slide 21: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
                  22. Slide 22: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
                  23. Slide 23: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
                  24. Slide 24: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling
                  25. Slide 25: CCS 3 - Species dispersal
                  26. Slide 26: Test yourself
                  27. Slide 27: Links to other chapters
                2. Chapter 9: The economic costs of conservation response options for climate change
                  1. Course Resources
                    1. Practical: Conservation for Climate Change
                      1. Tests to Assess your Understanding
                        1. How to run a GAM model in R

                          Slide 22: Tier 3 CCS3 - Bioclimatic & Dispersal Time Slice modelling

                          Duration: 00:00:19

                          Notes:

                          These maps show the movement of these species per decadal time slice and illustrate the outcomes for species using null, full and partial assumptions of migration. As can be seen, assuming no migration, there is a good likelihood that the threatened species may face extinction within 50 years, given the Hadley GCM's predicted changes in climate. Assuming partial movement, the area in which the species still exists by 2050 is considerably reduced, and limited to several mountain refugia that are close to extant areas. Even assuming full movement at the maximum rate available to each species, the area of survival is considerably reduced, making it clear that climate change is likely to have a significant impact on the proteas of this region.