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Table of Contents

  1. Introduction: AIACC: Climate Change and Conservation Planning
    1. Chapter1: Evidence for climate change
      1. Slide 1: Introduction: the evidence for anthropogenic climate change
      2. Slide 2: Climate variation
      3. Slide 3 : Climate change
      4. Slide 4: What are we looking for?
      5. Slide 5: Sources of data - instrumental
      6. Slide 6: Temperature
      7. Slide 7: Palaeoclimate reconstruction from proxy data
      8. Slide 8: Palaeoclimatological time scale
      9. Slide 9: Proxy data sources: Ice cores
      10. Slide 10: Proxy data sources: Dendroclimatology
      11. Slide 11: Proxy data sources: Oceanic sediments
      12. Slide 12: Proxy data sources: Other
      13. Slide 13: The role of climate models
      14. Slide 14: Evidence for change
      15. Slide 15: Thermal indicators: Glacial melting
      16. Slide 16: Thermal indicators: Sea ice
      17. Slide 17: Thermal indicators: permafrost
      18. Slide 18: Thermal indicators: Sea level change
      19. Slide 19: Thermal indicators: Sea temperatures
      20. Slide 20: Is oceanic circulation changing?
      21. Slide 21: The greenhouse effect
      22. Slide 22: Climate change forcings
      23. Slide 23: Greenhouse gases: methane
      24. Slide 24: Greenhouse gases: nitrous oxide
      25. Slide 25: Greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide
      26. Slide 26: Greenhouse gases: others
      27. Slide 27: Aerosols
      28. Slide 28: Sulphates and nitrates
      29. Slide 29:Thermal indicators: global air temperature
      30. Slide 30: Changes in precipitation
      31. Slide 31: Climate change indicators: extreme weather
      32. Slide 32: Conclusions?
      33. Slide 33:Test yourself
      34. Slide 34: Links to other chapters
    2. Chapter 2: Global circulation models
      1. Chapter 4: Biodiversity responses to past changes in climate
        1. Chapter 5: Adaptation of biodiversity to climate change
          1. Chapter 6: Approaches to niche-based modelling
            1. Chapter 7: Ecosystem function modelling
              1. Chapter 8: Climate change implications for conservation planning
                1. Chapter 9: The economic costs of conservation response options for climate change
                  1. Course Resources
                    1. Practical: Conservation for Climate Change
                      1. Tests to Assess your Understanding
                        1. How to run a GAM model in R

                          Slide 4: What are we looking for?

                          Duration: 00:00:56


                          The expression of changing climatic variables may differ, depending on the manner of climatic transformation. A change in mean temperature would most likely cause us to see more extreme heat, and more hot weather events, as shown in the first graph. However, a transformation in the variance of the temperature would cause the curve to become lower and wider, increasing the incidence of both hot and cold weather events. Most importantly, a change in both variance and mean of temperature might up the incidence of extreme heat and hot weather events, but the incidence of cold weather might be unchanged. This type of change would therefore hide the signal, since certain placers might not receive radically altered weather conditions. The trend would only become clear gradually, and this may be what we have observed in recent history.